Monday, December 06, 2004

Barry Bonds and Hypocrisy

I have very mixed feelings about the revelations about Barry Bonds this week, if "revelations" are what you call what happened. What did we learn that was really new? Didn't everyone already know that Bonds was using steroids? The career arc of most players begins a decline during the years 35-40. Babe Ruth, for instance, hit 49 HRs at 35, 46 at 36, 41 at 37, 34 at 38, 22 at 39 and 6 at 40, and then he was done. But, we'll hear, Babe was a hard-living man in an era before nutrition and exercise and trainers, etc. But Hank Aaron was not a hard-living man, and, not surprisingly, his decline phase started a little later, but not much: Aaron hit 47 at age 37, 34 at 38, but then popped back up to 40 at 39, then down to 20 at 40, 12 at 41, 10 at 42. Willie Mays, meanwhile, didn't have a wild-living reputation, but his career trend path is similar to the Babe's: 52 at 34, then 37 at 35, then a series of years where he was essentially hanging on: 22 (36), 23 (37), 13 (38), 28 (39), 18 (40), 16 (41), and 6 (42). Reggie Jackson, ditto: 39 at 36, then 14 (37), 25 (38), 27 (39), 18 (40), 15 (41). Each great slugger, the same pattern... great potential in youth building to superstardom in the "power years" between 28 and 34 or so, followed by a decline phase, a petering out due to injury, age, the toll of playing the game, whatever. It happened to everyone.

Could Bonds really be that big an aberration without using something? He began what looked like a modest, slow decline in his early thirties: 42 HRs at age 31, then 40 (32), 37 (33), 34 (34). His OPS (on base plus slugging) dropped from 1.076 at age 31 to 1.006 at age 34, not a steep decline, and still the stats of a great, great player. He would have kept playing and been productive, no doubt, until he was 40 or 41 or even 42. But the normal trendline would have been 30, 30, 25, 25, 20, 20, 15, 10 and out. Instead he went off into the stratosphere... his OPS stats the last four years are the #1, #2, #4 and #8 seasons of all time!

It can't happen.

So what did we really learn? Nothing about steroids. But we learned a little bit about Bonds that we wish we didn't know... he's a perjurer, for one thing. And we learned a lot about baseball leadership and fans.... that they're hypocrites. Because everyone knew when they were cheering for him and voting him MVP that he was using steroids. But they just kept looking the other way and pretending that men in their late 30s and early 40s can just "work out a little harder" and be better than they every were, better than anyone ever has been. It's a great fantasy, but it just isn't so. Believe me.

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