Presidential Approval Ratings v. Real Elections
This report on Wisconsin’s governor’s race -- Democrat Doyle over Republican Mark Green by only 4 points -- suggests a big fallacy with much of the national polling we have been getting showing the President’s approval rating going down.
The unspoken assumption of those kinds of polls is that the alternative to the President is a fictional President with whom you would agree about everything. Notably, the assumption is content-free – a conservative Republican can “disapprove” of President Bush because of his stand on illegal immigration, while a liberal Democrat can “disapprove” of President Bush because of the War in Iraq. Both will end up in the “disapproval” column, even though the odds on them voting the same way in a real election are practically nil.
Put most simply: the President’s generic approval rating is always skewed low because he is being compared to the President of Nirvana. The President of Nirvana is a unique candidate because, no matter what you believe public policy should be, he agrees with you and implements it perfectly. Where you live now is always going to seem “on the wrong track” (as the pollsters say) if the comparison is to Nirvana.
What the report on Wisconsin shows, however, is that polls change immediately when a real named Democrat with real policies and real baggage is the opponent in an election where the people of a locale know both candidates intimately. Wisconsinites (I am one) know Governor Doyle and have known him for a long time. And there’s a lot to dislike about his tenure as Governor and his policies.
The same will be true about House and Senate races across the country. Mediacrats are all excited because of the Bush disapproval ratings. But Republican House members and Senators are not going to be running against the perfect candidate with whom everyone agrees and who has no baggage and who never makes a mistake. They are going to be running against real people, who the people of their state or district know well.
2006 is very very very important. But the notion that Democrats are going to sweep the field because of approval poll numbers is just silly.
The unspoken assumption of those kinds of polls is that the alternative to the President is a fictional President with whom you would agree about everything. Notably, the assumption is content-free – a conservative Republican can “disapprove” of President Bush because of his stand on illegal immigration, while a liberal Democrat can “disapprove” of President Bush because of the War in Iraq. Both will end up in the “disapproval” column, even though the odds on them voting the same way in a real election are practically nil.
Put most simply: the President’s generic approval rating is always skewed low because he is being compared to the President of Nirvana. The President of Nirvana is a unique candidate because, no matter what you believe public policy should be, he agrees with you and implements it perfectly. Where you live now is always going to seem “on the wrong track” (as the pollsters say) if the comparison is to Nirvana.
What the report on Wisconsin shows, however, is that polls change immediately when a real named Democrat with real policies and real baggage is the opponent in an election where the people of a locale know both candidates intimately. Wisconsinites (I am one) know Governor Doyle and have known him for a long time. And there’s a lot to dislike about his tenure as Governor and his policies.
The same will be true about House and Senate races across the country. Mediacrats are all excited because of the Bush disapproval ratings. But Republican House members and Senators are not going to be running against the perfect candidate with whom everyone agrees and who has no baggage and who never makes a mistake. They are going to be running against real people, who the people of their state or district know well.
2006 is very very very important. But the notion that Democrats are going to sweep the field because of approval poll numbers is just silly.
posted by PDB at 9:19 AM
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