It's the Economy, Stupid?

In 1992, when the economy had already pulled out of a fairly mild recession, Bill Clinton rode to victory as a challenger on a theme of "It's the Economy, Stupid!" That was effective demogoguery, and perhaps even excusable -- in the days before the Internet, the Mainstream Media was so effective in selectively editing economic news that you couldn't really blame a Democratic candidate for counting on Dan and Tom and Peter to obfuscate good news and accentuate bad.

Now (at least I hope), Kerry and the Democrats and the MSM won't be able to get away with it. There is simply too much access to longitudinal data sets on the economy that allows regular folks like me to refute arguments about the economy. Want to argue that the Bush economy stinks? Here's what the GDP growth was for the six quarters before Clinton was reelected in 1996:

1995q2 0.7
1995q3 3.3
1995q4 3.0
1996q1 2.9
1996q2 6.7
1996q3 3.4

Average = 3.33%

Here's the GDP growth for the six quarters running up to Bush's reelection campaign in 2004:

2003q2 4.1
2003q3 7.4
2003q4 4.2
2004q1 4.5
2004q2 3.3
2004q3 3.7

Average = 4.53%

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Meanwhile, unemployment under Bush in September 2004 was 5.4%, trending downward from 5.6% in January 2004, while unemployment under Clinton in September 1996 was 5.2%, trending downward from 5.6% in January 1996. Source: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Dow right now is over 10,000; on November 1, 1996, it was just a tad over 6,000. Source: Yahoo Finance, Dow Jones Historical Prices. Etc., etc., etc.

Yes, kids, you can do this at home! GOTV!