The October 29th Surprise - Today's the Day Update!
Lots of people have concluded that the "October Surprise" from the Democrats that we feared has already happened -- that it was the Al Qaa Qaa "missing explosives" story. I still don't think so.
Savvy people -- Dick Morris comes to mind -- long ago concluded that Kerry isn't helped by focusing on Iraq, no matter what the news is, because if foreign policy, military effectiveness, national security are the main issues on which the vote turns, Republicans will always win, because most Americans long ago correctly decided that the modern Democratic Party exists somewhere within a range between pacifism and anti-Americanism. By focusing on Al Qaa Qaa, the Old York Times and CBS made a fundamental mistake of believing that what interests them -- American failure, American malfeasance, American incompetence -- will be convincing to the majority of Americans. But the majority of Americans have friends or family who have been in the military (I'll bet that isn't true about the bulk of journalists at NYT or CBS), and they know that the military isn't incompetent, but they also know that competence and professionalism doesn't mean perfection, and that the "fog of war" is, in fact, sometimes pretty foggy. This re-focus on Iraq and the question of "who do you trust to run the war?" isn't going to help Kerry a bit.
That's why I think this was a free-lance effort by NYT and CBS to help Kerry, not a move that the Kerry campaign would have wanted. I think the Kerry-coordinated "October Surprise" was supposed to be something that would attack Bush on domestic issues by trying to expose some personal, moral hypocrisy, which, in turn, Kerry hopes, will suppress the Christian and more specifically the Catholic vote in midwestern states Kerry needs like Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And I still think it will be dropped late in the day today so it will be the focus of news stories on the Sunday shows.
I think the "plan" for Kerry was always to do this, and that there will be a direct line from the "Mary Cheney is a lesbian" line in the debates to whatever happens today... that is, they will both be geared to suppress the votes of social conservatives, Reagan Democrats, pro-life, anti-gay marriage Catholics.
My latest guess is something along the lines of GWB paid for an illegal abortion in 1971; or, worse (and I really hate to think that they could go this low), that Jenna or Barbara had abortions more recently.
Pray that I'm wrong.
Savvy people -- Dick Morris comes to mind -- long ago concluded that Kerry isn't helped by focusing on Iraq, no matter what the news is, because if foreign policy, military effectiveness, national security are the main issues on which the vote turns, Republicans will always win, because most Americans long ago correctly decided that the modern Democratic Party exists somewhere within a range between pacifism and anti-Americanism. By focusing on Al Qaa Qaa, the Old York Times and CBS made a fundamental mistake of believing that what interests them -- American failure, American malfeasance, American incompetence -- will be convincing to the majority of Americans. But the majority of Americans have friends or family who have been in the military (I'll bet that isn't true about the bulk of journalists at NYT or CBS), and they know that the military isn't incompetent, but they also know that competence and professionalism doesn't mean perfection, and that the "fog of war" is, in fact, sometimes pretty foggy. This re-focus on Iraq and the question of "who do you trust to run the war?" isn't going to help Kerry a bit.
That's why I think this was a free-lance effort by NYT and CBS to help Kerry, not a move that the Kerry campaign would have wanted. I think the Kerry-coordinated "October Surprise" was supposed to be something that would attack Bush on domestic issues by trying to expose some personal, moral hypocrisy, which, in turn, Kerry hopes, will suppress the Christian and more specifically the Catholic vote in midwestern states Kerry needs like Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. And I still think it will be dropped late in the day today so it will be the focus of news stories on the Sunday shows.
I think the "plan" for Kerry was always to do this, and that there will be a direct line from the "Mary Cheney is a lesbian" line in the debates to whatever happens today... that is, they will both be geared to suppress the votes of social conservatives, Reagan Democrats, pro-life, anti-gay marriage Catholics.
My latest guess is something along the lines of GWB paid for an illegal abortion in 1971; or, worse (and I really hate to think that they could go this low), that Jenna or Barbara had abortions more recently.
Pray that I'm wrong.
posted by PDB at 7:13 AM
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