The October 29th Surprise
October 29 is the Friday before the election. In the last two close elections, 1992 and 2000, Democrats dropped bombshells on the Republican candidate on the Friday before the election, ensuring a weekend of captive left-liberal media attention, Republican defensiveness, and undecided voters wavering, wavering, and then going Democratic. In 1992 Bush I had pulled even with Clinton in many polls by the last week of the campaign, but Lawrence Walsh rode to the rescue by unsealing the indictment of Cap Weinberger, Reagan's defense secretary, for Iran-Contra, the Friday before the election. In 2000, of course, Bush II was hit by a thirty-year old DUI arrest. The Democrats have shown so far in this election that they will:
- Shoot guns at Republican headquarters;
- Break into and steal computers from Republican headquarters;
- Invade Republican state headquarters;
- Steal or deface Republican yard signs;
- Pay felons to register voters;
- Pay crack addicts in crack to register voters;
- Forge National Guard documents and air national news stories based on the forgeries;
- Out a lesbian, Mary Cheney, just because she happens to be the daughter of a Republican Vice-President;
- Claim "miracle cures" are on the horizon through stem-cell research, if only Kerry is elected;
- Demogogue the draft, social security, the War in Iraq, you name it, with shameful misrepresentations and out-and-out lies;
- I could go on and on.
What makes you think that they won't drop a bombshell on the Friday before the election again? Obviously, they will. So what will it be? I'm going to make some guesses over the next two weeks. Here are some possible guesses for the headline story on Friday, October 29, 2004:
A. "BUSH ARRESTED FOR MARIJUANA POSSESSION IN 1975."
B. "KARL ROVE INDICTED IN SPY SCANDAL." (the Valerie Plame story)
C. "BUSH DRUNK ON DUTY IN NATIONAL GUARD."
B has some surface plausibility, but I think it will have to be something personal like A and C to drive down the Christian conservative vote in places like Wisconsin, Ohio and Florida. That's how the Democrats think.
posted by PDB at 6:26 AM
1 Comments:
If A or C are the best that the Democrats can come up with, they do not deserve to win this election. Not because they are dirty, but because they are lame.
Anything to do with the National Guard was made radioactive by Rathergate; if it pops up again, you can bet it'll be blogged to death.
The "pot possession" story came up in 2000 as well.
And both incidents are before 1986, when W. had his "epiphany."
Democrats have had 4 years of the Bush record to work with. They've tried to portray it as a disaster, and yet they STILL haven't pulled ahead decisively in the polls. The typical American voter may be more tolerant than expected, but the voter is not an idiot. A smear like A, B, or C won't make a difference because the voters will just chalk it up to more machining, and still vote according to their whims.
The Phantom Observer
www.phantomobserver.blogspot.com
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