Milwaukee Voter Turnout
Captain's Quarters is blogging up a storm on the miraculous and mysterious voter turnout in Milwaukee County in last November's election. The data he cites seems pretty convincing: a decline in population (959,000 in 1990 to 940,000) coupled with a huge increase in voter turnout (365,000 in 1996 to 482,000 in 2004). There are some innocent explanations probably.... the 1996 election was remarkably uncompetitive and uninteresting, the 2000 election was highly competitive, and the 2004 election was extraordinarily competitive and contentious. Moreover, the ability (using email, the Internet, cell phones, computer databases, etc.) for campaigns to get out the vote has obviously gotten better as technology has improved. Finally, it is also true that Wisconsin has chosen to be a remarkably easy state for voting, with its motor voter law being designed to make walk-up registration a reality.
Having said that I would simply note a few peripheral stories: (1) in 2000 a Democratic activist was arrested giving cigarettes to homeless men in Milwaukee in exchange for their votes; (2) in 2004 the sons of the former mayor and current Congresswoman (both Democrats) were questioned in connection with the vandalism of 30 GOP vans on election day; (3) in 2004 the Democratic mayor requested that the County print 900,000 ballots for use on election day, many hundreds of thousands more than could possibly have been used even with extraordinary turnout. The stories point to a party that is willing to do practically anything to win.
Let's connect another dot: while Wisconsin for months before the election was viewed as a close swing state that could change the election one way or the other, Illinois was remarkably uncompetitive, with no one even questioning that Kerry would win there. Chicago, with its Democratic Party machine, is 90 miles from Milwaukee. Is it impossible to think some enterprising Democratic insider would think about encouraging Chicagoans to visit their cousins and grandmothers and aunts in Milwaukee on November 2nd and, oh, by the way, register to vote using their addresses?
Finally, it's also worth noting that Milwaukee has a burgeoning Hispanic population. How many are citizens? How many are illegals? How many show up on a census? I don't think anyone honestly can say. But I do know that one of the maintenance workers in our building (a downtown high rise), a very nice fellow who can barely speak English, took off for three months in August, September and October to do voter registration in the Hispanic community, being paid by his union. Could he have "accidentally" registered some illegals? Could he or his fellow union members encouraged some illegals to do same day registration on election day? Could some illegals have "wink, wink" been let through the process to get the Democratic turnout on Milwaukee's south side up?
Now, I hate to do this in some ways, because it smacks of the sort of paranoid conspiracy theories that the Democrats have been floating in Ohio. But, where there was never any evidence or statistical possiblity that the 118,000 victory for Bush in Ohio was the product of voter fraud, in Wisconsin the statistics the Captain cites together with the background of dirty tricks and Democratic hardball seems worthy of some sober reflection, analysis and investigation. The mainstream media won't do it -- certainly not the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, which was horrible during the months leading up to the election, and has essentially swept the van vandalism story under the rug. So it will be up to bloggers, again. (One place to look would be to do a longitudinal comparison of population changes in different Wisconsin counties and their voter turnout patterns with Milwaukee County. They ought to be parallel, or else you would have to conjecture that something was afoot in Milwaukee that wasn't happening elsewhere.)
Hat tip to Stacie Larson for pointing out the Captain's great work on this story, and a shout out to any other readers up in Minocqua. Stay warm!
UPDATE: OK, I've now looked at longitudinal data for three counties, Milwaukee, and its two nearest (and whitest and most affluent) suburbs, Waukesha County (Brookfield) and Ozaukee County (Mequon). From 2000 to 2004, the population of Waukesha County went from 360,000 (I'm going to round all these figures) to 374,000, while its voter turnout in the presidential elections went from 203,000 to 230,000, an increase from 56.3% to 61.5% (roughly). In the same period, Ozaukee County grew from 82,000 to about 85,000 people, and its voter turnout went up from 48,000 to 53,000, or from 57.8% to 62.4%. In Milwaukee, finally, from 2000 to 2004, the population shrank slightly, from 940,000 to 933,000, but the voter turnout went up from 433,000 to 482,000, or an increase from roughly 46% turnout to about 51.6% turnout.
On the face of these comparative figures, I'd have to conclude, barring other harder evidence, that the 2004 election in Milwaukee County was not grotesquely out of line. Milwaukee County, because less affluent, generally has lower voter turnout. That held to form in 2004. Meanwhile, in all three counties, turnout was up 11-13% over 2000, with Waukesha County (heavily Republican) having the biggest percentage increase in turnout. Again, this gibes with what I saw happening -- both sides were pushing for higher turnout, and both sides succeeded.
I think we'll have to look harder for real data before we jump to conclusions. We don't want to be like the Democratic Underground crazies, and start hearing "voter fraud" when we play our Zeppelin records backwards.
Having said that I would simply note a few peripheral stories: (1) in 2000 a Democratic activist was arrested giving cigarettes to homeless men in Milwaukee in exchange for their votes; (2) in 2004 the sons of the former mayor and current Congresswoman (both Democrats) were questioned in connection with the vandalism of 30 GOP vans on election day; (3) in 2004 the Democratic mayor requested that the County print 900,000 ballots for use on election day, many hundreds of thousands more than could possibly have been used even with extraordinary turnout. The stories point to a party that is willing to do practically anything to win.
Let's connect another dot: while Wisconsin for months before the election was viewed as a close swing state that could change the election one way or the other, Illinois was remarkably uncompetitive, with no one even questioning that Kerry would win there. Chicago, with its Democratic Party machine, is 90 miles from Milwaukee. Is it impossible to think some enterprising Democratic insider would think about encouraging Chicagoans to visit their cousins and grandmothers and aunts in Milwaukee on November 2nd and, oh, by the way, register to vote using their addresses?
Finally, it's also worth noting that Milwaukee has a burgeoning Hispanic population. How many are citizens? How many are illegals? How many show up on a census? I don't think anyone honestly can say. But I do know that one of the maintenance workers in our building (a downtown high rise), a very nice fellow who can barely speak English, took off for three months in August, September and October to do voter registration in the Hispanic community, being paid by his union. Could he have "accidentally" registered some illegals? Could he or his fellow union members encouraged some illegals to do same day registration on election day? Could some illegals have "wink, wink" been let through the process to get the Democratic turnout on Milwaukee's south side up?
Now, I hate to do this in some ways, because it smacks of the sort of paranoid conspiracy theories that the Democrats have been floating in Ohio. But, where there was never any evidence or statistical possiblity that the 118,000 victory for Bush in Ohio was the product of voter fraud, in Wisconsin the statistics the Captain cites together with the background of dirty tricks and Democratic hardball seems worthy of some sober reflection, analysis and investigation. The mainstream media won't do it -- certainly not the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel, which was horrible during the months leading up to the election, and has essentially swept the van vandalism story under the rug. So it will be up to bloggers, again. (One place to look would be to do a longitudinal comparison of population changes in different Wisconsin counties and their voter turnout patterns with Milwaukee County. They ought to be parallel, or else you would have to conjecture that something was afoot in Milwaukee that wasn't happening elsewhere.)
Hat tip to Stacie Larson for pointing out the Captain's great work on this story, and a shout out to any other readers up in Minocqua. Stay warm!
UPDATE: OK, I've now looked at longitudinal data for three counties, Milwaukee, and its two nearest (and whitest and most affluent) suburbs, Waukesha County (Brookfield) and Ozaukee County (Mequon). From 2000 to 2004, the population of Waukesha County went from 360,000 (I'm going to round all these figures) to 374,000, while its voter turnout in the presidential elections went from 203,000 to 230,000, an increase from 56.3% to 61.5% (roughly). In the same period, Ozaukee County grew from 82,000 to about 85,000 people, and its voter turnout went up from 48,000 to 53,000, or from 57.8% to 62.4%. In Milwaukee, finally, from 2000 to 2004, the population shrank slightly, from 940,000 to 933,000, but the voter turnout went up from 433,000 to 482,000, or an increase from roughly 46% turnout to about 51.6% turnout.
On the face of these comparative figures, I'd have to conclude, barring other harder evidence, that the 2004 election in Milwaukee County was not grotesquely out of line. Milwaukee County, because less affluent, generally has lower voter turnout. That held to form in 2004. Meanwhile, in all three counties, turnout was up 11-13% over 2000, with Waukesha County (heavily Republican) having the biggest percentage increase in turnout. Again, this gibes with what I saw happening -- both sides were pushing for higher turnout, and both sides succeeded.
I think we'll have to look harder for real data before we jump to conclusions. We don't want to be like the Democratic Underground crazies, and start hearing "voter fraud" when we play our Zeppelin records backwards.
posted by PDB at 10:18 AM
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